Let me start by offering an overview of the international environment today as this obviously impacts and should shape Pakistan’s foreign policy choices and diplomacy.

This is an unsettled time in global affairs. The world is in strategic flux and in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty. There is little predictability and we may be facing an increasingly atomized and fragmented international system.

Nine features of the current global landscape or geopolitical trends are noteworthy.

1.  The obvious first one is increasing multipolarity as global power is being diffused and redistributed in a complex world where the very notion and currency of power has been undergoing a change. An aspect of this of course is Asia’s emergence as the driver of the global economy.
2.  Challenges to multilateralism and erosion of a rules-based international order, which is reflected in renunciation of existing agreements, treaties or previously agreed arrangements. There are many examples, withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, rejection of the Iran nuclear agreement, renunciation of the INF treaty – and withdrawal from the Human Rights Council, WHO and threats to leave WTO.
3. The rise of right-wing populism and extreme nationalism in many parts of the world and the increasing resort to unilateralism by their leaders. This is also reflected in efforts by big powers to rewrite the rules of the game in their own regions through unilateral actions. Russia in Crimea, Modi in occupied Kashmir, and the US in South America and elsewhere.
4. Resurgence in East-West tensions and intensification of competition between the major powers, described by some as a new cold war. Heightened competition between the US and China has been triggered for the most part by Washington’s strategy to contain China’s rise It is not just trade and tech wars that are central in this new cold war, but geopolitical ambitions and interests.
5. At a time of global flux, alliances matter less. Instead networks or ad hoc coalitions have become the preferred choice of alignment by countries. Often single-issue groups among like-minded countries are formed.
6. The erosion of the European project accelerated by Brexit which raises questions about the EU’s future and its diplomatic weight in international affairs.
7. The emergence of anti-globalization forces in the West and resort to protectionist policies that can further undermine globalization. The spread of Coronavirus is likely to provide further ammunition to right wing leaders urging closed borders.
8. Continuing turmoil in the Middle East and intensification of tensions between the major regional powers.
9. Intensifying competition in the area of advance technologies. This has become the new arena of competition and tech wars between big powers. The military uses of new technologies poses new challenges even though new technologies hold great potential for social and economic progress. Digital technology offers new opportunities but then there is the dark side of the digital world with new technologies being abused to commit crimes, spread hate and fake information which imperil us all.

Let me first set out some general implications from this for Pakistan’s foreign policy and then turn to specifics.
First, in this multipolar and networked landscape, marked by diffusion of power, like others, we need greater outreach than ever before – and to many actors beyond governments – to elicit the cooperation needed to secure our foreign policy goals.

Both the vertical and horizontal diffusion of power drives the compulsion to engage multiple actors specially non state actors, who wield influence and shape public perceptions about a country.
Soft power matters much more in this environment but we have yet to incorporate soft power strategies in our foreign policy. This is despite the fact that the power of being ‘liked’ can in fact be a force multiplier to strengthen a country’s diplomatic weight and standing.

Two, we are still operating with mental maps of the past when only a handful of countries counted. We have yet to move into the phase of creating multiple options in our foreign policy.

Three, Pakistan needs to evolve clear policies beyond the few countries we have close ties with. For example we need a Look East strategy for Asia beyond China. We need a diplomatic strategy to engage Latin America and the former states of Eastern Europe.

Turning to specifics there are at least four key areas of immediate challenge

1. Navigating Sino-US competition
2. Kashmir and its future as well as relations with India
3. Middle East turmoil and Saudi-Iran tensions
4. Afghanistan: Winning the peace: rebuilding broad based relations with Afghans and winning hearts and minds there.

The Sino-US rivalry clearly has direct implications for Pakistan given Washington’s strategy to parley India as a strategic counterweight to China and Modi’s India prepared to side openly with the US. It’s longer term implications need to be carefully assessed but it is already becoming an immediate issue for Pakistan with Washington’s open criticism of CPEC and its silence on Kashmir and enhancement of India’s conventional and strategic capabilities. The US-India relationship is creating an environment of dangerous imbalance and volatility.

The ‘positive’ emerging from this however is that it is underlining more clearly to the Chinese that their strategic future lies with Pakistan. This in turn is driving the Chinese interest to strengthen Pakistan, economically and strategically. CPEC is recognition of this and of China’s interest in Pakistan’s economic stability and progress.
But while our relations with China are on a positive trajectory, they need careful handling. There are already signs of Chinese frustration on a number of counts. CPEC, Pakistan’s reliance on China on CT issues including FATF, and Kashmir are all positives but can become irritants as well.
Choreographing with Beijing on every issue and every step is key as for them optics are extremely important.

Ties with the US have witnessed an improvement mostly owing to the Afghan issue, but there is as yet no substantive content to the bilateral relationship and the question whether a broad based relationship is possible remains unanswered.

We need to manage this relationship and keep it on a positive track while identifying and understanding the limits of the relationship and the clear premise that we cannot become part of any containment of China strategy.
There is, for now, no strategic convergence with the US. The only commonality is Afghanistan and that too may be tested in the months and years to come as challenges are encountered to the delicate peace process.

With India, relations will continue on a turbulent course with no respite from this while Modi is in power. Here our foreign policy challenge will be the greatest. How do we deal with the regional storm created by India’s illegal annexation of Jammu and Kashmir of August 5 and keep occupied Kashmir on the agenda of the international community.

How do we press our Kashmir policy and preserve our principled stance with less than encouraging support from the international community but paradoxically when the issue has been internationalized in an unprecedented way.

Three things are important:

1.  We need to evolve clarity in our Kashmir policy and above all in the objectives we seek. Is it an end to the lockdown, reversal of abrogation of Article 370, end to human rights abuses or the attainment of the right of self-determination? So far, these objectives have been rather blurred.
2. We need consistency in our diplomatic campaign on Kashmir; not an on-off approach. We need to match the noise we make at home with real efforts overseas. And we need to keep pushing the boundaries at the international level. Two diplomatic steps are urgent otherwise there is the danger that Kashmir fades from international focus. Calling for a ministerial meeting of the OIC and a special session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva exclusively on IOK.
3. We also need to mobilize and sustain a national consensus on our Kashmir policy. That means cross party involvement and inclusion

Managing relations with India will continue to be a pressing challenge and not an easy one. Risks too will have to be deftly managed. All the more reason that inputs should be sought from across the Parliamentary divide and support solicited for any further escalation of tensions with India.

What should be avoided is any engagement for the sake of engagement with India. An immediate question is whether we want to hold a SAARC summit now, because it could become a step towards normalization. Do we want normalization in the current scenario?

In the Middle East the continuing standoff between Saudi Arabia and allies and Iran urges careful balancing between the two and staying the course on our traditional policy of avoiding being sucked into the dynamics of this rivalry. This has been made harder by our financial reliance on Riyadh with the limits of our independence in this context tellingly exposed by the Malaysian summit fiasco.

Nevertheless we should pursue a balanced approach towards the two and also rebuild and reinforce relations with countries in the region beyond them, ties that have atrophied with many of them over time.

Russia seems to have been overlooked in our recent diplomatic efforts even though there is recognition that space has opened by the US-India embrace for Islamabad to forge a new and better relationship. This needs greater attention and ties require careful nurturing.

Turning to Afghanistan, this will be a major preoccupation in the months to come as the peace process struggles to gather pace but with it, efforts by spoilers to derail this promising opportunity for peace.
Pakistan will continue to have a pivotal role but also pressure to play its part. Winning the peace is much harder than waging war This challenge has to be met by taking a number of steps and above all by learning from the past and not repeating past mistakes.

1. Putting in place a coordinating mechanism that can synchronize political, diplomatic, economic, security and people-to-people steps that will be needed in this period.
2. Outreach to different groups in Afghanistan’s ethnic mosaic and a real, determined effort to win hearts and minds.
3. Border management and taking the necessary internal CT measures.
4. Ensuring that the Afghan Taliban commits to effective steps to disband and act against the TTP and publicly declare its disassociation with it.
   It is urgent to map out different scenarios that can emerge in Afghanistan and what Pakistan may need to do in responding to them.
   With this let me turn to the opportunities ahead.
   1. The first is the greater diplomatic space that has opened by a more multipolar world and the opportunity to align with different sets of countries on different foreign policy goals and objectives.
   2. The prospect for peace in Afghanistan offers the opportunity for regional connectivity so the time is opportune to explore new ones and reinforce ones already in place. This should be done proactively.
   3. With the CT challenge having been effectively met at home and Pakistan’s role internationally acknowledged, now is the time to craft soft power strategies and integrate it into our diplomacy to promote our foreign policy objectives. Positive global opinion can be a decisive enabler for achievement of diplomatic goals.
   4. A well planned outreach is needed towards Russia as this is an area that holds much potential and promise.
   5. More proactive approaches to important global players beyond the P-5.