A matter of life and debt
March 29, 2023
A Matter of Life and Debt
- March 29, 2023
In every crisis lies an opportunity. Many countries across the world that faced an economic crisis were able to use that as an opportunity to bounce back stronger and more resilient. Southeast Asian nations that experienced a financial crisis in 1997 did that by undertaking fundamental, painful reform and addressing structural problems through tough economic measures. Similarly, India in the 1990s and several Latin American states in the 1980s and 1990s went through severe economic crises but managed to not just recover but embark on a path of robust growth and build economic sustainability. In each case, wrenching structural adjustments, tight fiscal policy, and other reform measures were launched by leaderships aided by able teams who were convinced that long-term commitment and consistent policy implementation were essential to moving forward and that patchwork ‘solutions’ were in fact no solutions.
The question this raises is whether Pakistan can turn its economic crisis into an opportunity and break from its past of managing crisis with band-aid measures which only set the stage for the next crisis. This brings up the question of what it takes for the crisis to be turned into an opportunity. The conditions or characteristics to make this happen seem to largely transcend national boundaries.
The most important pre-requisite isn’t economic. It is the quality of a country’s leadership and whether it leads a competent government that sees the significance of structural reform and has the motivation, political will, and credibility to take measures that are painful in the near-term but yield rich and enduring dividends in the long run. Pakistan’s economic crises have in fact all been rooted in governance crises, with ruling elites averse to reform and who almost always sought pain-free ways of dealing with economic problems that avoided taking structural measures.
Pakistan’s economic crises have in fact all been rooted in governance crises, with ruling elites averse to reform and who almost always sought pain-free ways of dealing with economic problems that avoided taking structural measures.
Leadership is important but so is a capable team of professionals who can assist the government to fashion and implement reforms that enable the country to navigate through crises towards sustained recovery and growth. In every successful case of a country that took the path to a better economic future, the quality of professionals who shaped and oversaw the reform process was significant. But again, it is the leadership that chooses the right team and then inspires them to deliver.
Today Pakistan faces a stark choice about just such a bargain.
Institutional quality and strength are also critical factors. This ensures how robustly reform measures are implemented and how efficiently adjustments are made during the process to respond to changing circumstances. Again, Pakistan’s case is not encouraging given the progressive decline in the civil service and its predominantly generalist nature. In various periods in the past, the finance ministry, for example, didn’t even have a single trained economist. The eroding capacity of state institutions has emerged in recent years as a key impediment to policy implementation.
There is much for Pakistan’s economic managers to learn from how other countries have achieved sustained levels of high growth. Among useful publications that have analyzed this is the Growth Report, which offers important lessons from the experience of countries around the world. The report was the work of the Commission on Growth and Development set up by the World Bank, which comprised distinguished members mostly from developing countries. Though published in 2008 its findings are just as valid today. Most instructive is the report’s identification of characteristics shared by countries that implemented successful growth strategies. They fully exploited the world economy, ensured macroeconomic stability, maintained high rates of saving and investment, allowed markets to allocate resources and they all had credible and capable governments. Above all, the report points to the understanding by policymakers that “successful development entails a decades-long commitment and a fundamental bargain between the present and the future.”